Drop in UK cases not a sign the US can safely remove masks or drop restrictions

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A story of three countries

The UK, like the US, has suffered from leaders who dramatically downplayed the importance of the pandemic and actively toyed with the idea of ​​simply allowing their population to be decimated by COVID-19 in order to obtain collective immunity. Eighteen months later, the two countries are neck and neck over the percentage of the population that has died from COVID-19. This number is officially just under 1,900 in a million, although, in the United States at least, there is good reason to believe that the actual number is much higher. On the other hand, Canada generally had good leadership at the national level, although it certainly suffered its fair share of local and provincial scams.

At the start of the year, all three countries were experiencing a wave of illness. Canada certainly saw a much smaller impact than either of its two English-dominated allies, but it made up for that somewhat with a wave in the early spring. Then, from about June 1, the three nations went in very different directions.

COVID-19 cases per capita in US, UK and Canada

Even though the UK suffered a new wave of delta that brought it down to levels not seen since the winter, rates in the US and Canada have remained relatively low. But a few weeks later, the delta became dominant in the United States and cases here also started to skyrocket. Meanwhile, things in Canada kept getting better. The UK was 23rd among all countries on Tuesday, with 344 new cases per 100,000 people. The United States was 43rd with 187. Canada was # 132 with just 14.

So far, Canada has simply not experienced a delta-based push. And cases there may remain low for the same reason that UK cases are on the decline.

Vaccination rate in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada

The reason the US is still trending upward even as the UK reverses its trend can come down to the most basic thing: vaccination rates. Compared to Canada or the UK, the US lags behind in immunization, not because the vaccine is not available, and certainly not because the queues for vaccines are too long. long. The United States is behind other rich countries because Republicans in the United States somehow decided that putting everyone’s lives on the line was a big middle finger for Democrats.

But even then, what are the data of Wales and Scotland shows that beating the COVID delta variant requires both vaccination and restrictions. Despite what looks like a steep drop in British affairs, it does not represent a stroke of genius on Boris Johnson’s part. This means that in Scotland, with vaccines, masks and social distancing, cases have fallen by more than 50%. In Wales, with the vaccine, masks and social distancing, cases have fallen by more than 35%. In England, after declaring ‘freedom’, cases only dropped by 3% – and that’s before it’s been really long enough to see if all this freedom might not lead to further spread.

And Canada’s low numbers reflect not only a high vaccination rate, but also mask warrants that continue, including warrants for the vaccinated, except during small gatherings. from Canada guidelines continue to insist on the wearing of a mask for the unvaccinated in any indoor situation and recommend a mask for the vaccinated. And while some provincial governments have relaxed the rules in early July, most areas are still much more vigilant about masking and distancing than the United States

The United States is not in a position to declare a “freedom day”. On this day, there are millions of vaccinations and weeks of masks to come. And every attempt to deny this truth will only prolong the pandemic.





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