We have new data for the new home map of Oregon, the country’s first this decade.


Two districts, the 1st and 3rd in Portland, would remain safely blue: the first would have gone for Joe Biden 68-29 and the second 73-25; under the old lines, Biden won them 63-34 and 74-24 respectively. On the other hand, the sprawling 2nd, which covers the entire eastern part of the state, would remain solidly Republican, passing 61-37 for Donald Trump against 56-42 in its previous version.

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The remaining three districts are said to be all Democrats, but not to a great extent. The 5th District, currently represented by Democratic Representative Kurt Schrader, would turn a little redder, dropping from 54-44 Biden to 53-44, and actually voted Republican Knute Buehler 52-47 in the 2018 race for governor , as calculated by Dave’s Redistricting App.

The neighborhood too saw some of the biggest changes between the Democrats’ original map and the finished product, ditching parts of Portland’s dark blue zone in exchange for sod swaying around the town of Bend. However, the Bend area has had a tendency in favor of Democrats, so if Schrader can hang on next year, that seat should become more favorable to him over time.

Democratic Representative Peter DeFazio’s 4th District along the state’s southwest coast, meanwhile, would turn bluer: After a narrow 51-47 victory for Biden under the old lines, the president reportedly wore it instead 55-42 using the new card. Oregon is also having a brand new district in the Portland area, the 6th, which would have opted for Biden 55-42. Of course, there is no old district to compare this one to, although it should be noted that Brown reportedly lost it 49-46 in his 2016 special election and only took it by a slim margin of 49.5 to 49.3 two years later.

Interesting way, more of the new 6th is made up of the old 5th compared to the new 5th: 50% of the 6th comes from the old 5th arrondissement, or around 420,000 people, while only 39% of the updated 5th, or 330,000 people, comes from the previous iteration of the district. Schrader’s hometown of Canby, however, remains in the 5th, so he really enjoys running there. (Every other district on the new map is formed largely from its predecessor of the same number.)

In a tough year for Democrats, therefore, the 5th could potentially switch to the GOP, and maybe the 6th or even the 4th of a pretty big wave. If things go well for the party, however, it will ensure a 5-1 advantage in the state delegation, to one over the current 4-1 arrangement. As for legislative cards, those will also block current Democrats’ majorities, although it will likely be difficult for them to win the two-thirds of the qualified majorities that would prevent Republicans from organizing future boycotts without a quorum.

Electoral redistribution

Redistribution of the GA: Republicans in Georgia State Senate have published a draft Congress map it would make Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath’s 6th District redder while supporting neighboring 7th District Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux. Lawmakers won’t agree to any proposals, however, until they meet again on November 3, and other GOP leaders may have different gerrymanders in mind.

IN Redistribution: Indiana Senate Committee Passes Republican New Legislative and Legislative Redistribution Plans on a party line vote, with a vote in the plenary assembly expected friday. However, the Senate made small changes to some of its own districts, which would force the House, which has already signed all three cards, to return for another vote.

ME Redistribution: Maine Bipartite Allocation Commission reached agreement on a new state Senate card Monday, sending it, along with the Congress and State House plans it had previously focused on, to lawmakers for consideration when they resume on Wednesday. The new cards require a two-thirds qualified majority vote in both houses of the Democratic-led legislature to pass, along with the signature of Democratic Governor Janet Mills. All three maps are available here.

WA redistribution: Washington’s bipartisan Redistribution Commission released its first draft congressional maps, which are all available here. As they did when they presented their legislative plans last week, each of the panel’s four commissioners developed their own plan. If the commission comes to an agreement, its maps will become law, with limited ability for lawmakers to change them first. Otherwise, the redistribution would be dealt with by the courts.

Senate

OH-Sen: A new internal survey of WPA Intelligence’s GOP primary for former state treasurer Josh Mandel finds Mandel leading venture capitalist JD Vance 37-13 for the nomination. It hasn’t changed much since a July WPAI survey, taken on behalf of the Growth Club, which had Mandel in the lead 40-12.

Not in: Reality has returned to political consultant Craig Snyder, who launched a campaign for the GOP nomination to the Senate for Pennsylvania in July by positioning himself as an explicitly anti-Trump Republican: Monday, Snyder abandoned from the race, claiming that “he has not been able to generate enough support”.

Governors

NY-Govt: New York City Public Counsel Jumaane Williams, who previously said he was considering a bid against Gov. Kathy Hochul in next year’s Democratic primary, announced the formation of an exploratory committee Tuesday and said he would make a final decision “next month”.

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TX-38: Army veteran Wesley Hunt, who was considering a rematch with Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’ 7th Congressional District, now says it’s his “intention to run” in what would be the brand new (and solidly Republican) 38th Borough of suburban Houston. Legislators recently presented a draft Congress card but have not yet taken action on this.

Mayors

Cincinnati, OH mayor: Hamilton County Clerk Aftab Pureval got approval last week Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown before the general elections of November 2.

Pureval faces off against City Councilor David Mann, a fellow Democrat who represented the Cincinnati area in the House from 1993 to 1995. (Mann was overthrown by Republican Steve Chabot, who fired Pureval in 2018.) Pureval overtook Mann 39-29 in the May non-partisan primary.

Mayor of San José, California: Santa Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez confirmed this week that she is participate in next year’s open seat race for the mayor of San José. Chavez joins three board members in the non-partisan June primary: Raul Peralez, who is an allied colleague at work, and Dev Davis and Matt Mahan, aligned on business.

Chavez, who would be the first Latina to hold the post, had already run in 2006 when she was a member of the city council and vice-mayor of the city. She was held up by a number of scandals in local government, however, and lost to Chuck Reed, another member of the city council who presented himself as an outsider, 59-41. This was not the end of Chavez’s career in local politics, however. She went on to lead the local AFL-CIO and went on to win a special election in 2013 for the five-member supervisory board.





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